Electricity price forecast for winter 2026–2027

Why is electricity more expensive in winter?

Finnish electricity consumption nearly doubles from summer months to the winter peak. In June, Finland consumes around 7–9 GW; on the coldest January days peak consumption can rise to 15 GW. This comes primarily from heating demand growth — every degree below zero adds about 300 MW to consumption from electrically heated households and district heating plants.

Meanwhile Nordic hydro follows a controlled annual programme: reservoirs are filled September to November and drained December to March for winter peaks. Solar produces practically zero in Finland December to January. Nuclear (OL1, OL2, OL3, Loviisa 1 and 2) runs at a steady 4,400 MW. Flexibility comes from wind — but a calm cold snap removes even that buffer.

December 2026 forecast

The first-half December spot average settles at 7–10 c/kWh in market models if weather is close to normal. In the second half around Christmas and New Year, the average typically rises to 10–14 c/kWh as demand grows and industrial holiday break does not compensate in time.

Most likely spike windows: Monday to Thursday at 07–09 (morning peak) and 17–20 (evening peak). These hours may exceed 30–50 c/kWh 1–5 times per month if a cold snap coincides with calm wind. Nights (22–06) and weekends are almost always clearly cheaper.

January 2027 forecast

January is the toughest electricity market month in Finland. In the coldest years (2016, 2018, 2024) the January spot average has been 15–25 c/kWh, though the long-term average is 10–13 c/kWh. For January 2027 markets are pricing an 11–14 c/kWh average.

Individual spikes of 40–100 c/kWh are likely for 5–15 hours on the coldest days. These are practically cold snaps (about 20 degrees of frost) where wind generates under 500 MW nationally. Shifting consumption away from these hours is the single biggest saving opportunity in winter.

February 2027 outlook

February typically continues along January lines for the first 2–3 weeks, after which prices start dropping with the return of solar and rising temperatures. The February 2027 average is estimated at 10–13 c/kWh.

Late-winter Nordic reservoir fill is critical: if reservoirs are below 25 percent of normal at end-February, spring and early summer prices remain elevated into April. This is a significant risk if early winter has been dry and cold.

Cold snap price spikes and how to respond

Verrokit tracks Fingrid data in real time and identifies price spikes typically 6–24 hours in advance. Practical guidance for winter spikes:

• Time control: Set storage electric heating, EV charging, hot water heater and dishwasher to charge or heat during the cheapest night hours (typically 02–05).
• Sauna and laundry: Avoid the evening peak (17–20). Morning (10–14) or night (22–06) are usually 5–15 c/kWh cheaper.
• Heat pump settings: Lower indoor temperature by 1–2 degrees during the evening peak if the building warms slowly.
• No need to panic: Individual 50–100 c/kWh hours are rare. They only add 5–15 percent to the monthly bill if most consumption falls on cheaper hours.

Best contract for winter 2026–2027

Electric heater (over 15,000 kWh per year): Spot with time control is clearly best — you benefit from the cheapest nights and avoid daily peaks. Without time control, a 24-month fixed (11–12 c/kWh) protects best against a high-scenario winter.

Average consumer (5,000–15,000 kWh per year, district heating): A 50/50 hybrid is the best compromise. The fixed share protects against spikes, the spot share saves during mild periods.

Small consumer (under 5,000 kWh per year): Spot with the lowest standing charge — the standing charge difference (2–5 €/month) weighs more than winter price variation in the total bill.

Compare winter-suited electricity contracts on Verrokit.