Electricity price forecast 2027 — market outlook

Big drivers of the 2027 price outlook

Four big changes affect the 2027 electricity market compared to 2026. First, Finnish wind capacity grows from about 8,000 MW to around 10,000 MW by end-2027. This lowers the annual average by 0.5–1.5 c/kWh and increases the occurrence of negative hours.

Second, delays in Sweden new nuclear reactor plans mean the Sweden to Finland transmission stays tight in winter 2027–2028. Third, Baltic Pipe and stabilised Norwegian LNG bring stability to the European gas market, pricing TTF futures at 25–35 €/MWh for the year. Fourth, EU emissions trading (ETS) is priced at 80–100 €/tCO2, keeping coal and gas power marginal prices high in Central Europe.

Q1 2027 the first winter quarter

January to March is the most expensive quarter of the year. Markets price the Q1 2027 average at 11–14 c/kWh — February being the most expensive. Individual spikes of 30–80 c/kWh occur for 20–50 hours across the quarter.

Q1 2027 is decisive for consumers: the better you can shift consumption to the cheapest night hours, the smaller the distribution of the annual bill. Adopting time control (storage heating, EV, hot water heater) can save an electric heater 300–600 euros annually from Q1 alone.

Q2 2027 spring softening

April to June is the cheapest quarter of the year. Meltwater fills Nordic reservoirs, solar returns at full power and consumption drops sharply as heating demand ends. The Q2 2027 average is estimated at 5–7 c/kWh — in an exceptionally rainy spring even below 5 c/kWh.

This quarter regularly sees negative hours — practically every other weekend at 12–15 in sunshine. For consumers, spring is the cheapest time to time-shift major consumption (oven use) or EV charging.

Q3 2027 summer and early autumn

July to September average settles at 6–9 c/kWh. Non-Finnish industry on maintenance breaks in summer lowers European demand. From the Finnish perspective summer is typically the most stable quarter — spikes are rare, but so are negative hours.

Late September the price starts turning up as heating season begins. This is a good time to review your electricity contract — if a fixed-term contract ends in winter, a new contract should be considered in September.

Q4 2027 late-year outlook

October to December returns to winter logic. Average 9–13 c/kWh, with October the mildest and December the most expensive. The late-2027 price is significantly affected by Nordic reservoir accumulation during 2027 — if the year has been rainy, Q4 is closer to the lower bound (9–10 c/kWh).

Consumers should remember Q4 2027 also brings opportunities: November windy weeks can see 40–70 percent cheaper days than the year-end average. Time-controlled devices benefit from this.

2027 annual average scenarios

Low (6–8 c/kWh, 30 percent probability): A rainy year fills Nordic reservoirs above 90 percent, wind capacity growth realises as planned, and the European gas market stays stable. All season averages land at the lower bound.

Base (8–10 c/kWh, 50 percent probability): Most likely outcome. Normal weather, wind capacity grows but not without delays. Gas futures stabilise at 30 €/MWh.

High (10–12 c/kWh, 20 percent probability): Dry year + European geopolitical shocks (Norwegian LNG disruption) + cold winter. Annual average above 10 c/kWh combined with several winter spikes.

Which contract to choose for 2027?

The 2027 market favours spot electricity for most consumption profiles. Reasons: (1) wind growth lowers the annual average, (2) the gas market normalises, (3) price spikes concentrate in winter where time control helps significantly.

Exceptions:

• Non-time-controlled electric heater (over 20,000 kWh per year): A 24-month fixed at 10–11 c/kWh may be cheaper if winter cannot be smoothly optimised.
• Risk-averse who values stability: Hybrid 50/50 or 12-month fixed gives budget predictability.
• Small house with heat pump: Spot + smart thermostat optimises automatically — best combination.

Compare 2027-suited electricity contracts on Verrokit and use the Consumption calculator to estimate your annual consumption.