Low
6–8 c/kWh
Probability 25 %
Market forecast · September–December 2026
Electricity price forecast for late 2026
The Finnish spot electricity price for late 2026 is projected to land in the 6–14 c/kWh range according to market models, depending on wind generation, Nordic hydro reservoir levels and European gas futures. Here is a walkthrough of three scenarios and which contract type makes sense now.
Forecast scenarios
Base
8–11 c/kWh
Probability 50 %
High
11–14 c/kWh
Probability 25 %
What drives the late-2026 forecast
The late-2026 forecast is built on five main drivers. First, Nordic hydro reservoir levels: September to December rainfall and temperature determine reservoir fill and the supply of Nordic hydro power. Second, actual wind generation in Finland and Sweden — Finland has over 8,000 MW of wind capacity installed, and Q4 wind availability directly affects the spot price.
Third, the availability of Olkiluoto 3 (1,600 MW) — a baseload plant whose absence lifts the spot price by 3–8 c/kWh for weeks at a time. Fourth, the European TTF gas futures level: gas power sets the marginal price in Central Europe, and high gas pulls the Finnish spot up through interconnections. Fifth, the weather pattern — a cold December can lift demand above 15 GW, which combined with a calm period produces price spikes.
Low scenario (6–8 c/kWh)
The low scenario materialises if autumn rains fill Nordic reservoirs close to full (over 85 percent), wind generates above average, and October to November temperatures are milder than normal. In this scenario the Nord Pool average settles at 6–8 c/kWh, and negative hours occur regularly on windy nights.
For consumers this means spot electricity is clearly the cheapest option — even after the standing charge, the total price stays below most fixed-price offers. Mild temperatures also reduce the absolute bill by 20–30 percent versus a normal year.
Base scenario (8–11 c/kWh)
The most likely scenario assumes average hydro conditions, normally realised wind, and uninterrupted OL3 operation. Central European gas futures sit around 30–40 €/MWh in November 2026, keeping the Finnish spot in the 8–11 c/kWh range. Individual price spikes of 20–40 c/kWh are likely for 5–10 hours in December on cold and calm evenings.
In this scenario spot electricity remains cheapest on average, but hybrid and time-controlled contracts make sense if budget stability matters. A fixed-price contract lands 1–2 c/kWh more expensive on average.
High scenario (11–14 c/kWh)
The high scenario activates if hydro reservoirs stay low (below 65 percent fill), wind generation runs clearly below normal, and OL3 has an unplanned outage. Combined with a European gas crunch (TTF above 60 €/MWh) this would lift the December average to 15–18 c/kWh, with spikes of 60–100 c/kWh possible around Christmas and January.
In this scenario a fixed-price contract (for example 24-month at 12 c/kWh) would protect the consumer. Spot would still deliver the cheapest bill on average if the consumer can shift a meaningful share of consumption to the cheapest hours (storage electric heating, EV night charging).
Winter 2026–2027 risk factors
The late-2026 price is also significantly affected by the incoming winter of 2027. The biggest risks are: (1) a cold front in January can lift Finnish demand above 15 GW for several days; (2) Russian gas deliveries to Europe remain practically zero, so disruptions in Norwegian LNG directly affect gas futures; (3) Swedish nuclear — Ringhals 3 and 4 produce 2,200 MW and their unplanned outage directly affects the Finnish area price through interconnections.
Verrokit tracks these drivers in real time via Fingrid and Nord Pool data. See Spot electricity price now and Electricity production in Finland for current status.
Which contract makes sense for late 2026?
If your consumption is under 5,000 kWh per year (apartment or row house, district heating): spot electricity with the lowest standing charge is the expected cheapest option in all scenarios. The standing charge (0–3 €/month) weighs more than the volatility in the total price.
If your consumption is 5,000–15,000 kWh per year (detached house, no electric heating): spot is expected to be cheapest, but a hybrid contract (50 percent fixed and 50 percent spot) protects well against the high scenario. A 12-month fixed at 10–11 c/kWh is a good choice if budget stability matters.
If your consumption is over 15,000 kWh per year (electric heating, EV): spot electricity provided you can shift consumption is clearly best. Without time control, a 24-month fixed protects best. Compare the cheapest contracts against your consumption profile.
Current spot electricity price
Frequently asked questions
How reliable are electricity price forecasts?
On a one-month horizon, the average price forecast typically lands within about 15 percent. On three months the range is about 30 percent, and beyond six months 30–50 percent. Accuracy for individual hours remains significantly weaker. The Verrokit scenarios (low, base, high) reflect this uncertainty — they are based on market model ranges, not a single correct number.
How does winter 2026 affect the electricity price?
A cold winter lifts Finnish total demand from a normal 12–13 GW up to 15–16 GW. Combined with a calm weather period (low wind), this significantly raises the spot price for many hours at a time. Historically, average prices in cold Januarys have been 30–60 percent higher than in a normal January. This is factored into the late-2026 forecast as possible December spikes.
Should I take a fixed-price contract or stay on spot for late 2026?
If your consumption is small (under 5,000 kWh per year) or you can shift consumption to the cheapest hours, spot is expected to be cheapest. If budget stability matters and the high-scenario risk worries you, a 12–24 month fixed at 10–12 c/kWh gives good protection. A hybrid contract (50/50) is a compromise that works for most consumption profiles.
Is the electricity price for autumn 2026 exceptionally high?
No. The late-2026 spot price is close to the long-term normal level (7–10 c/kWh incl. VAT) per market models. The exceptional prices of 2022–2023 (up to 20–30 c/kWh average) resulted from the gas crunch caused by the Russian war of aggression, which has since normalised. Nord Pool futures price late 2026 clearly below those years.
What happens if the spot price goes negative in December 2026?
A negative hour means you get paid for consuming electricity — but the standing charge (0–3 €/month) and grid transmission (about 4–7 c/kWh) still bill normally. Practical benefit: timing consumption to these hours (EV charging, sauna) lowers the monthly bill. For late 2026, 5–20 negative hours are expected (especially on windy November nights).
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