Weather and electricity price — when is spot electricity cheapest?
Wind is the single biggest driver of the Nord Pool spot price in Finland. Kova tuuli means cheap electricity — calm cold nights mean expensive. See live data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and Fingrid, and learn how to time your consumption.
Tomorrow's wind power forecast — which hours are likely cheapest?
Fingrid publishes an hourly wind power forecast for the next 24 hours. Green bars = high wind (likely cheap), orange bars = low wind (likely expensive). Plan your EV charging or laundry accordingly.
Source: Fingrid wind power forecast · updated hourly · tap a bar for details
Combined with the FMI wind forecast above, this gives you two independent signals for tomorrow's cheapest hours. The Nord Pool spot prices for tomorrow are published around 14:00 EET — see them directly on the prices page.
How wind drives the electricity price
Finland has around 8,000 MW of installed wind capacity (2026). On a good windy hour with wind blowing 12–15 m/s along the coasts, wind farms can produce 5,000–6,000 MW — that is half of Finland's consumption from wind alone. On calm hours the same fleet may produce below 500 MW.
Nord Pool's spot price is set hour by hour by supply meeting demand. The cheapest producer sets the price at the margin. When wind is abundant, that margin is a cheap producer (wind's marginal cost is near zero) → the price falls. When wind is calm during cold weather, the margin is a gas plant or import from continental Europe → the price rises.
Practical rule of thumb
- Wind 15+ m/s + mild weather → spot price often 0–3 c/kWh (sometimes negative)
- Wind 7–12 m/s + mild weather → spot price around the daily average (3–7 c/kWh)
- Wind under 3 m/s + cold weather → spot price can rise 10–20+ c/kWh
When should I run the washing machine or charge the EV?
If you have a spot price contract, the answer changes hour by hour. Here are the reliable patterns:
- Overnight 1–6 AM — consumption is at its lowest, and often the price too. On calm nights this is where wind power is still producing while everyone sleeps. Perfect for EV charging on a timer.
- Windy afternoons (12–16 CET) — wind is often at its strongest, industrial demand is high but distributed. Good time for laundry or dishwasher.
- Weekend mornings — offices are closed but wind farms produce normally. Prices are typically below weekday averages.
- Avoid 7–9 AM and 5–7 PM on weekdays — morning start-up and evening peak. Wind is often calmer in these hours too. Prices are typically highest.
Nord Pool publishes tomorrow's hourly prices around 14:00 EET. Check them once, and time your consumption for the next 24 hours in one go.
Dunkelflaute — when the wind stops in winter
Dunkelflaute is a German meteorological term meaning "dark doldrums" — a period when both wind and solar production drop simultaneously in cold, calm winter conditions. In Finland this typically happens during high-pressure systems in January and February.
During Dunkelflaute the entire Nordic system stresses: wind farms produce below 500 MW, solar is near zero (short days), demand for heating is at yearly peak, and nuclear reactors run at full capacity but cannot cover the gap alone. The remaining demand is filled by:
- Gas turbines — expensive marginal cost, 15–25 c/kWh raw
- Imports from continental Europe — priced at their local (also expensive) marginal cost
- Condensation plants (mainly wood chips and peat)
Result: spot prices can spike to 20–50 c/kWh for individual hours, sometimes even higher. Historical example: February 2021 several hours crossed 100 c/kWh. This is the strongest argument for a fixed-price contract for households with big electricity heating loads.
Frequently asked questions
How does weather affect the electricity price?
Weather is one of the biggest drivers of the Nord Pool spot price. Wind is the strongest single factor: when it blows strong on Finnish coasts (over 12 m/s), wind farms produce at high capacity. Wind has near-zero marginal cost, so plenty of wind pushes the price-setting plant down the merit order — the market clears at a lower price. Cold weather increases demand and pushes prices up, while mild weather does the opposite.
When is electricity cheapest?
Electricity is typically cheapest during windy hours combined with mild weather and low demand — often on windy afternoons or on windy nights between 1–6 AM. Nord Pool day-ahead prices for the next day are published every day around 14:00 EET, so you can plan the cheapest hours in advance.
How much does wind power lower the spot price?
On heavily windy hours, wind alone can cover 40–50% of Finnish consumption. In such conditions the spot price often falls to 0–3 c/kWh, and occasionally to zero or negative values. On calm windless winter nights, prices can rise above 15 c/kWh.
How do I know when a windy hour is coming?
The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) publishes free weather forecasts on their open data portal. Fingrid also publishes an hourly wind power forecast for the next 24 hours. Combined, you can see when wind power output is expected to be high tomorrow, and time appliances (EV charging, washing machine, sauna heating) accordingly.
Does temperature affect the price too?
Yes. Cold weather increases electricity demand for heating — heat pumps, direct electric heating and district heating boilers all draw more power. When it's cold AND calm at the same time, expensive gas or condensation plants must run, and the spot price rises sharply. This is the classic "Dunkelflaute" scenario Nordic winters occasionally see.